Stock Market Outlook April 2020 - Juergen Pallien - stock market investor

Be aware to always trade according to the right signals, this is just an opinion 🙂 



After we crashed down as we predicted already in February, we are now looking for a bottom. We will have a time of high volatility and some upwards movement, however I guess we will retest the last lows around the middle of April. Somewhen in May we then could get back into a real upwards movement. It very much depends on how long the lockdown will stay in place whether we will see another crash or not. The US in general was in a way better shape than other economies and so far have the only convincing idea on how to stimulate the markets again. Therefore the US will come out of the Corona crisis way better than other economies.



Europe is likely to fall into a double dip recession and so far nothing that the several governments or the ECB was doing in terms of saving the markets looks convincing. I expect horrible numbers for bankruptcies and unemployment over the next few months. There will be some effects on the US markets going up, however the EU will lag other markets by far. I expect new lower lows over the next few weeks and earliest next month a recovery. Being highly into debt with an already struggling economy, printing money is likely to only increase the difficulties.



With the corona virus Brexit negotiations aren’t as important at the moment. Both issues are huge risks for the UK economy. Being more stable, having better ideas on how to save the economy and more room for stimulating the market with monetary policy than the EU, I expect the UK markets to get better through the crisis than the rest of the EU. The FTSE is likely to behave very similar than the US market over the next few weeks.




Our last months prediction worked out quite well. As in many cases when selling of equity, a lot of market participants went to bonds, especially Japanese bonds. That meant that initially the dollar was down and the Yen was up. As this started to reverse lately, I see the USD heading up more in a highly volatile trading. If there should be negative news about coronas impact on the economy and the markets go into another nose dive, that movement can reverse quickly but only to come back when things stabilize again. 



As predicted the EUR dropped heavily in the middle of the month but recovered a lot lately. Eventually we didn’t close the month lower but had a very rewarding drop as we expected. For this month I expect the current upwards movement to reverse and the EUR to go down again against the USD. 



As predicted we had a very high volatility but mainly went down during the month. Only lately we recovered again and I expect that movement to continue. In the middle of the month I expect a downwards reaction again. As Brexit currently remains unresolved and the uncertainty very high, my longer term expectation on the GBP heading up will be postponed for a few months. 




In the OPEC meeting Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to let the oil price drop aggressively due to political reasons. With oil prices being at an extreme low, they expect that many of the shale oil companies in the US and Canada will go bankrupt when oil prices stay below their production costs for a longer period. Either due to lower supply when these companies have to give up or through things going back to normal after the worldwide lockdowns get lifted, I expect the oil price to be higher again. That may take several weeks though. For the next few weeks I still expect lower oil prices but an upwards movement maybe already from the middle of April.



As predicted we had a drop in the gold market. It’s an absolute myth that in times of insecurity the gold price goes up. I also predicted that we might see some upwards movement again at the beginning of April. As the upwards movement already started at the end of March I expect that we will go down at the beginning of April and then end higher again at the end of the month.



We had some upwards movement at the beginning of march but then dropped big time which I didn’t expect. Our short term indicators told us though so I still made money on it. As we retraced the movement already, I now expect a downwards movement at the beginning of the month and higher silver prices at the end due to several macroeconomic factors.



Due to the effects of halted production in China, all commodities that are heavily used in the production cycle like copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, etc. were hit hard. As the corona virus will lose its significance both in real life as well as in the media, there is a huge potential for all of these ending way higher over the next 2-3 months compared to their current levels.   



As predicted we ended March flat, pretty much at exactly the point where we started the month. After some upwards movement we are currently correcting and that correction is likely to continue at the beginning of the month. After that I expect prices to rise again under high volatility and end the month higher.


Soy oil/Soy beans:

After things began to stabilize more in Asia, the prices reversed and came up again as predicted. For the beginning of the month I expect a correction and from there higher prices until the end of the month. As things get back more and more to normal, there seems to be high potential that prices will rise significantly.



We had the expected drop at the beginning of the month and also the recovery at the end of the month. For the time being we are still at very low levels and I expect them to drop even further in the beginning. The time for a recovery is hard to predict as it is currently unclear when things go back to normal and the demand might catch up again. I will be extremely cautious with long positions at the moment.


Orange Juice:

With prices spiking up drastically, they are likely to correct. For all eatables there is always a possibility that countries restrict exports and therefore cut back the supply side which will lead to higher prices. Although I see prices for Orange Juice to drop again in April, be cautious that you are facing high volatility and that you secure profits early.


As always, make sure you do your own analysis. Happy and successful trading ☺

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