Stock Market Outlook March 2020 - Juergen Pallien - stock market investor

be aware to always trade according to the right signals, this is just an opinion 


Last month I predicted a correction and that's exactly what happened. The dramatic looked a bit scary at least for those that weren't able to predict it. My students earned up to 6-figure sums by shorting the market. As the coronavirus threat is coming to a halt as it seems, I expect markets to be up again very soon and going into a seasonal pattern where we see upwards swings throughout the next few months.



Struggling with new highs already many European markets dropped even more than their US pendants. We had the exact pattern that we predicted for February. I expect a seasonal correction here as well and upwards tendencies. Since we have lots of unresolved issues, the production cuts in China will weigh heavier on the EU as the US, therefore I see less potential for the recovery. Also, this month will be overshadowed by Brexit negotiations, where a no-deal Brexit is back on the table. Although the initial decline will be harder on the UK in this case, the real trouble is with the highly in-debt EU countries that lose one of their biggest trading partners and therefore lack of the desperate needed economic growth to cope with the high debt level of many block countries.



Depending on the Brexit negotiations we might see another temporary drop for the UK market. As stated above with the UK being able to stimulate their economy both from the monetary as well as from the fiscal side and having a lot of commonwealth trade agreements in place already, the real problem is with the EU rather than the UK. I am well aware that the market initially things different and that is great. It's similar to the coronavirus. It will be panic mode which acts as a nice money making machine in the drop phase and then we will see a longer-term recovery where we have the opportunity to buy companies at very cheap levels.




As predicted the USD went up against pretty much all major currencies. We had a little drop since then after we secured a lot of money, however for March I expect that we gain a bit more and the USD will remain strong until the second half of March.



Also, as predicted the Euro went down against the USD. Now we had a very big recovery already and I think that it is about to turn again soon and continue a decline. I expect Euro to be down against the USD and depending on the Brexit negotiations headline up against the GBP at the end of the month. That trade will be accompanied by high volatility and is most likely to go up and down providing us with great trading opportunities.



March will be very volatile for the British pound, going up and down with high volatility depending on the latest Brexit moves. As we are aware of the volatility we can have great chances here trading it up and down. For earlier reasons stated in the monthly outlooks, I expect the GBP higher in the future going slightly back up to its pre-Brexit strength.




Together with the corona virus threat, we had a huge drop in oil. Since production seems to ramp up again in China and more and more goods will be produced and shipped again, chances are good that oil goes on a big recovery very soon. We also have an OPEC meeting at the beginning of March which can provide further stimulus to the oil price.



Unfortunately, Gas hasn't provided what it promised, therefore we got out of it. I still think that prices will be going up again, we are likely to get a second chance from mid-March until the end of May.



As predicted we ended higher in February with nice gains at the beginning and a nasty drop at the end when people threw away a lot of everything. In case of gold they are likely to regret it and we will see some upwards movement. At the end of the month we might see another correction before we head into new gains for April.



Similar to gold we had a huge drop in silver. Compared to the gold drop it was way steeper and therefore the correction potential is bigger. With production coming up and the current support level I expect silver to be up significantly at the end of March.



Due to the effects of halted production in China, all commodities that are heavily used in the production cycle like copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, etc. were hit hard. As the corona virus will lose its significance both in real life as well as in the media, there is a huge potential for all of these ending way higher at the end of March compared to their current levels.



As predicted we saw higher coffee prices in February. There is still a bit of potential however, I expect March to be mainly flat for coffee.


Soy oil/Soy beans:

On the demand side we certainly had some drop from the biggest importer of soy (China). As things will become more and more normal we will see a continuation of an upwards pressure in prices for both soy oil and soy beans.



After following the upwards channel now for months we are getting close to the lower point. Seasonally I expect a drop in Lumber at the beginning and mid of March with prices recovering at the end of March. Be aware that the recovery can occur quite fast, so make sure that you secure your profits and don't give them away in the reversal.


As always, make sure you do your own analysis.
Happy and successful trading 🙂

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